PFS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PFS - Provident Financial Services, Inc.
$21.46
-0.56 (-2.54%)
▼
5d:
-4.2%
30d:
-3.51%
90d:
-6.53%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PFS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PFS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.81
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PFS is currently trading at $21.46, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.93 to $22.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 24.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.20 (+17.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.20 (+17.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$21.93 -
$22.70
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($25.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.93 -
$22.70
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.33
Resistance Level
$22.88
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.55
Wall Street Target
$25.20
(+17.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.2%
Profit Margin
34.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.42
(0%)
2-Year Target
$21.37
(0%)
3-Year Target
$21.33
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$21.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 6.4%)
$66.81
(+211%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 6.4%)
$25.88
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 6.4%)
$22.00
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.35
Bull Case
$25.87
(+21%)
Analyst growth 6.8%, PE expands to 10.3
Base Case
$23.52
(+10%)
Market implied 6.8%, PE stable at 9.4
Bear Case
$14.97
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$21.59
(+0.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 11:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PFS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher P Martin
SELL
1050 shares
2026-02-05
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