PGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PGY - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares
$13.47
0.18 (1.35%)
▲
5d:
-5.94%
30d:
+20.59%
90d:
-35.15%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PGY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PGY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.68
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.43
26.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGY is currently trading at $13.47, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.36 to $13.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.0) compared to its historical average (5.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PGY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.40 (+96.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PGY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.40 (+96.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$11.36 -
$13.96
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PGY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 96.0% below Wall St target ($26.40)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.9% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.36 -
$13.96
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.12
Resistance Level
$15.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.97
Wall Street Target
$26.40
(+96.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.8%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.0 vs 5.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.37
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$11.35
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$10.42
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$13.37
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 19.1%)
$118.04
(+776%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.0, Growth: 19.1%)
$22.76
(+69%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.4, Growth: 19.1%)
$19.35
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.93
Bull Case
$29.24
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$26.58
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$9.04
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.0 to 5.1
Stabilization Target:
$17.28
(+28.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 7:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tami Rosen
SELL
9720 shares
2026-04-17
Evangelos Perros
SELL
13004 shares
2026-04-01
Evangelos Perros
SELL
8425 shares
2026-03-12
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PGY price and gamma walls.
