PGY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PGY - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares
$15.42
-0.33 (-2.10%)
▼
5d:
+5.91%
30d:
+17.17%
90d:
+40.69%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PGY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PGY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.09
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.82
8.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGY is currently trading at $15.42, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.34 to $15.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.4) compared to its historical average (4.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 183.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.33, while resistance sits at $16.27.
Market Sentiment: PGY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.90 (+74.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.33, while resistance sits at $16.27.
Market Sentiment: PGY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.90 (+74.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$13.34 -
$15.24
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 74.4% below Wall St target ($26.90)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.34 -
$15.24
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.33
Resistance Level
$16.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.36
Wall Street Target
$26.90
(+74.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
183.8%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.4 vs 4.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.86
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$14.33
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$13.81
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$15.53
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 14.8%)
$117.23
(+660%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.4, Growth: 14.8%)
$23.31
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.7, Growth: 14.8%)
$19.81
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.12
Bull Case
$34.65
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.5
Base Case
$31.50
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$10.71
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.4 to 4.9
Stabilization Target:
$17.34
(+12.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 7:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PGY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tami Rosen
SELL
9720 shares
2026-04-17
Evangelos Perros
SELL
13004 shares
2026-04-01
Evangelos Perros
SELL
8425 shares
2026-03-12
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