PMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PMT - PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust
$11.96
0.18 (1.53%)
▲
5d:
+5.75%
30d:
-0.33%
90d:
-4.7%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PMT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PMT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.45
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.97
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PMT is currently trading at $11.96, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.43 to $12.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PMT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.21 (+10.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PMT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.21 (+10.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$11.43 -
$12.06
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($13.21)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.43 -
$12.06
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.15
Resistance Level
$11.99
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.21
Wall Street Target
$13.21
(+10.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1067.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
17.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.79
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$11.63
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$11.46
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$11.92
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 2.1%)
$36.34
(+204%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: 2.1%)
$12.74
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 2.1%)
$10.83
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.99
Bull Case
$20.76
(+83%)
Analyst growth 68.2%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$18.87
(+66%)
Market implied 68.2%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$7.63
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$12.43
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 05, 2026 1:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Catherine A Lynch
BUY
1451 shares
2026-01-23
David Spector
BUY
10000 shares
2025-11-17
Catherine A Lynch
BUY
1470 shares
2025-10-24
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