PMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PMT - PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust
$11.83
-1.68 (-12.44%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
Get Alerted When PMT Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
1 traders called PMT this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: PMT is down 11.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: PMT is down 11.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.74
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.40
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PMT is currently trading at $11.83, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.58 to $13.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.0) compared to its historical average (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 54.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 12.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.50 (+14.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 12.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.50 (+14.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$12.58 -
$13.47
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-12.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($13.50)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.8% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$12.58 -
$13.47
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.70
Resistance Level
$13.81
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.97
Wall Street Target
$13.50
(+14.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-18.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
54.1%
Profit Margin
21.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 7.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.34
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$10.88
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$10.43
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$11.82
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.1%)
$43.93
(+271%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 5.1%)
$13.74
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 5.1%)
$11.68
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.92
Bull Case
$26.22
(+122%)
Analyst growth 76.8%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$23.83
(+102%)
Market implied 76.8%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$9.17
(-23%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$13.40
(+13.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.3%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 3:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is PMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Catherine A Lynch
BUY
2823 shares
2025-09-22
Top Rated REIT - Mortgage Stocks
Top-rated stocks in REIT - Mortgage by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RITM
Rithm Capital Corp. |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$15 | 53 HOLD |
|
AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp |
BUY
15 analysts |
$12 | 61 BUY |
|
NLY
Annaly Capital Managemen… |
BUY
14 analysts |
$24 | 54 HOLD |
|
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trus… |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$14 | 61 BUY |
|
DX
Dynex Capital Inc |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$15 | 61 BUY |
