PRGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PRGS - Progress Software Corp (DE)
$27.77
0.37 (1.35%)
▲
5d:
-7.65%
30d:
+0.36%
90d:
-33.34%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
PRGS is down 7.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $30 2026-06-18 with 210 OI. Call ratio: 80% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PRGS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PRGS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.20
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PRGS is currently trading at $27.77, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.80 to $30.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.6) compared to its historical average (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 120.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PRGS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $26.82, while resistance sits at $32.23.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.83 (+83.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PRGS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $26.82, while resistance sits at $32.23.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.83 (+83.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$26.80 -
$30.42
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PRGS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 83.1% below Wall St target ($50.83)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.80 -
$30.42
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.82
Resistance Level
$32.23
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.58
Wall Street Target
$50.83
(+83.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
120.8%
Profit Margin
8.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.6 vs 6.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.99
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$22.49
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$20.24
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$28.28
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 1.3%)
$129.94
(+368%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.6, Growth: 1.3%)
$28.89
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.9, Growth: 1.3%)
$24.55
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.95
Bull Case
$60.28
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.5
Base Case
$54.80
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$18.63
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.6 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$38.79
(+39.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 6:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PRGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-16
Sundar Subramanian
SELL
1600 shares
2026-03-11
Sundar Subramanian
SELL
21594 shares
2026-03-10
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