PROV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PROV - Provident Financial Hldgs
$17.01
0.01 (0.06%)
▲
5d:
-0.7%
30d:
-0.93%
90d:
+4.87%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When PROV Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PROV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PROV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.94
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PROV is currently trading at $17.01, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.88 to $17.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.0) is in line with its historical norms (13.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$16.88 -
$17.20
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.1% growth with -11.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.88 -
$17.20
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.88
Resistance Level
$17.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.98
Wall Street Target
$16.50
(-3.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-24.5%
Profit Margin
15.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 13.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.03
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$17.04
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$17.06
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$17.08
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$36.69
(+116%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 8.3%)
$21.59
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 8.3%)
$18.35
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.93
Bull Case
$26.34
(+55%)
Analyst growth 40.9%, PE expands to 20.1
Base Case
$23.95
(+41%)
Market implied 40.9%, PE stable at 18.3
Bear Case
$11.56
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 11:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:36 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is PROV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Banks - Regional Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Banks - Regional by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
USB
U.S. Bancorp |
BUY
24 analysts |
$63 | 55 HOLD |
|
KEY
KeyCorp |
BUY
24 analysts |
$25 | 59 HOLD |
|
WBS
Webster Financial Corpor… |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$74 | 59 HOLD |
|
WAL
Western Alliance Bancorp… |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$89 | 56 HOLD |
|
NU
Nu Holdings Ltd |
BUY
20 analysts |
$20 | 50 HOLD |
