PSX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PSX - PHILLIPS 66
$188.10
-0.19 (-0.10%)
▼
5d:
+6.41%
30d:
+21.88%
90d:
+47.24%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PSX is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: PSX is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$205.59
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$127.66
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PSX is currently trading at $188.09, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $156.40 to $177.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.7) compared to its historical average (12.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $187.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PSX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $166.95. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $187.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PSX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $166.95. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$156.40 -
$177.45
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Protect Your Profits
PSX is technically overbought (RSI 76). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.0% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 11.3% above Wall St target ($166.95)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$156.40 -
$177.45
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$171.00
Resistance Level
$187.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.74
Wall Street Target
$166.95
(-11.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
242728.4%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$195.25
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$202.47
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$209.96
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$187.99
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.1%)
$346.27
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 4.1%)
$212.36
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 4.1%)
$180.51
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.79
Bull Case
$235.24
(+33%)
Analyst growth 21.9%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$213.85
(+21%)
Market implied 21.9%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$119.32
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PSX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Omar Meyers
BUY
175 shares
2026-03-17
Lisa Ann Davis
SELL
3800 shares
2026-03-13
Brian Mandell
SELL
42800 shares
2026-03-12
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