PZZA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PZZA - Papa John's International Inc
$35.17
-0.71 (-1.98%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PZZA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PZZA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.54
26.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PZZA is currently trading at $35.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.21 to $39.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.4) is in line with its historical norms (21.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PZZA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PZZA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.73 (+30.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PZZA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PZZA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.73 (+30.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$37.21 -
$39.79
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PZZA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.2% below Wall St target ($46.73)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.21 -
$39.79
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.43
Resistance Level
$39.83
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.44
Wall Street Target
$46.73
(+30.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-89.8%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.4 vs 21.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.84
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$33.83
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$32.85
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→21)
$35.99
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 29.2%)
$88.69
(+147%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.4, Growth: 29.2%)
$77.31
(+116%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 29.2%)
$65.71
(+83%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.14
Bull Case
$63.60
(+81%)
Analyst growth 61.9%, PE expands to 34.5
Base Case
$57.82
(+64%)
Market implied 61.9%, PE stable at 31.3
Bear Case
$24.28
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.4 to 21.3
Stabilization Target:
$39.32
(+9.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.6%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PZZA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced PZZA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PZZA price and gamma walls.
