REFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
REFI - Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Common Stock
$12.40
0.05 (0.40%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: REFI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: REFI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.67
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.97
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: REFI is currently trading at $12.40, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.22 to $12.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: REFI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.94 (+37.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: REFI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.94 (+37.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$12.22 -
$12.72
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.1% below Wall St target ($16.94)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$12.22 -
$12.72
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.43
(3.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.13
Resistance Level
$12.77
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.15
Wall Street Target
$16.94
(+37.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.0%
Profit Margin
65.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.25
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$12.15
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$12.06
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$12.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 0.0%)
$38.52
(+212%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 0.0%)
$12.35
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 0.0%)
$10.50
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.69
Bull Case
$13.76
(+11%)
Analyst growth 2.2%, PE expands to 8.0
Base Case
$12.51
(+1%)
Market implied 2.2%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$8.32
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$12.61
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 4:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is REFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
John Mazarakis
BUY
8000 shares
2025-10-16
Jason D Papastavrou
BUY
10000 shares
2025-10-15
Jason D Papastavrou
BUY
8000 shares
2025-10-15
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Advanced REFI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's REFI price and gamma walls.
