RGLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RGLD - Royal Gold Inc
$263.31
-28.67 (-9.82%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: RGLD is down 10.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: RGLD is down 10.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$494.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$306.84
14.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RGLD is currently trading at $263.31, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $229.76 to $280.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.1) compared to its historical average (20.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGLD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $254.56, while resistance sits at $306.25. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: RGLD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGLD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $254.56, while resistance sits at $306.25. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: RGLD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$229.76 -
$280.42
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RGLD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-9.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($305.09)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 4.8% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$229.76 -
$280.42
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$254.56
Resistance Level
$306.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.05
Wall Street Target
$305.09
(+4.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Profit Margin
42.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
24.1 vs 20.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$306.00
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$320.68
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$336.08
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$292.09
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.0, Growth: 50.9%)
$985.43
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 50.9%)
$913.83
(+213%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 50.9%)
$776.76
(+166%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.28
Bull Case
$552.61
(+110%)
Analyst growth 66.8%, PE expands to 45.5
Base Case
$502.37
(+91%)
Market implied 66.8%, PE stable at 41.4
Bear Case
$204.82
(-22%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RGLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced RGLD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RGLD price and gamma walls.
