RITM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RITM - Rithm Capital Corp.
$10.94
-0.98 (-8.22%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RITM is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: RITM is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.89
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.62
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RITM is currently trading at $10.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.04 to $11.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.3) is in line with its historical norms (5.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RITM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.28 (+19.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RITM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.28 (+19.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$11.04 -
$11.75
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RITM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($14.28)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.1% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.04 -
$11.75
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.90
Resistance Level
$12.15
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.29
Wall Street Target
$14.28
(+19.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
45.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
77.3%
Profit Margin
22.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
5.3 vs 5.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.10
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$12.28
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$12.46
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→5)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.02
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 3.7%)
$56.04
(+370%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.3, Growth: 3.7%)
$13.29
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.5, Growth: 3.7%)
$11.29
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.46
Bull Case
$20.49
(+72%)
Analyst growth 54.4%, PE expands to 9.1
Base Case
$18.62
(+56%)
Market implied 54.4%, PE stable at 8.3
Bear Case
$8.20
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RITM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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