RLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RLX - RLX Technology Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing the right to receive one (1) Class A ordinary share
$2.31
-0.02 (-0.86%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 13, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RLX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RLX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.28
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.04
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RLX is currently trading at $2.31, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.27 to $2.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 2.5) is in line with its historical norms (2.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RLX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2.90 (+24.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RLX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2.90 (+24.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$2.27 -
$2.34
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.6% below Wall St target ($2.90)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$2.27 -
$2.34
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.25
Resistance Level
$2.44
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.46
Wall Street Target
$2.90
(+24.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.7%
Profit Margin
23.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
2.5 vs 2.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.34
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$2.34
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$2.35
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
PE COMPRESSION
$2.30
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.2%)
$29.12
(+1150%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.5, Growth: 11.2%)
$3.21
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.1, Growth: 11.2%)
$2.73
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.08
Bull Case
$5.17
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 32.3
Base Case
$4.70
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 29.4
Bear Case
$1.60
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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