RWT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RWT - Redwood Trust, Inc.
$5.48
-0.39 (-6.64%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
9d
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1 traders called RWT this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RWT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RWT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.72
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.41
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RWT is currently trading at $5.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.51 to $5.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.2) is in line with its historical norms (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.75 (+23.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.75 (+23.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$5.51 -
$5.81
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RWT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.2% below Wall St target ($6.75)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.8% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.51 -
$5.81
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.42
Resistance Level
$6.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.23
Wall Street Target
$6.75
(+23.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-22.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.6%
Profit Margin
-80.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 6.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.43
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$5.37
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$5.32
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$5.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.4%)
$29.38
(+436%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 14.4%)
$8.21
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 14.4%)
$6.98
(+27%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$5.63
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 4:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RWT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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