RWT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RWT - Redwood Trust, Inc.
$5.38
0.09 (1.70%)
▲
5d:
-2.0%
30d:
-11.07%
90d:
-2.71%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RWT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RWT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.98
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.96
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RWT is currently trading at $5.38, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.70 to $6.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.3) compared to its historical average (6.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.18, while resistance sits at $5.96.
Market Sentiment: RWT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.97 (+29.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.18, while resistance sits at $5.96.
Market Sentiment: RWT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.97 (+29.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$5.70 -
$6.27
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.5% below Wall St target ($6.97)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.70 -
$6.27
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.19
Resistance Level
$5.96
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.29
Wall Street Target
$6.97
(+29.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
93.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.6%
Profit Margin
-39.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.3 vs 6.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.02
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$4.69
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$4.38
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$5.39
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 3.7%)
$25.36
(+371%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.3, Growth: 3.7%)
$6.00
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.5, Growth: 3.7%)
$5.10
(-5%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.3 to 6.5
Stabilization Target:
$6.61
(+22.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 8:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RWT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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