SBH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SBH - Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.
$15.22
0.10 (0.66%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SBH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SBH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.49
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.35
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SBH is currently trading at $15.22, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.72 to $15.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.7) is in line with its historical norms (7.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.20 (+13.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.20 (+13.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$14.72 -
$15.78
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.20)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$14.72 -
$15.78
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.86
Resistance Level
$17.92
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.74
Wall Street Target
$17.20
(+13.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 7.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.83
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$14.55
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$14.27
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$15.03
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.4%)
$63.71
(+321%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 8.4%)
$19.27
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 8.4%)
$16.38
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.89
Bull Case
$19.53
(+28%)
Analyst growth 18.6%, PE expands to 8.7
Base Case
$17.76
(+17%)
Market implied 18.6%, PE stable at 7.9
Bear Case
$10.18
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 7.1
Stabilization Target:
$15.92
(+5.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.3%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Max R Rangel
BUY
3500 shares
2025-09-04
Denise Paulonis
BUY
4500 shares
2025-08-08
Diana Sue Ferguson
BUY
2500 shares
2025-08-07
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SBH price and gamma walls.
