SBH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SBH - Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.
$13.41
0.11 (0.83%)
▲
5d:
-2.61%
30d:
-16.55%
90d:
-10.54%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SBH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SBH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.81
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.54
1.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SBH is currently trading at $13.41, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.22 to $16.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.9) compared to its historical average (7.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SBH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.80 (+41.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SBH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.80 (+41.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$14.22 -
$16.01
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.4% below Wall St target ($18.80)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$14.22 -
$16.01
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.21
Resistance Level
$14.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.88
Wall Street Target
$18.80
(+41.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.4%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 7.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.57
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$11.88
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$11.22
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$13.35
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.3%)
$66.07
(+397%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: 9.3%)
$17.36
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 9.3%)
$14.76
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.76
Bull Case
$19.79
(+44%)
Analyst growth 28.4%, PE expands to 8.8
Base Case
$17.99
(+31%)
Market implied 28.4%, PE stable at 8.0
Bear Case
$9.53
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 7.0
Stabilization Target:
$15.82
(+18.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:56 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is SBH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kim Mcintosh
SELL
5900 shares
2025-12-11
Scott C Sherman
SELL
15000 shares
2025-12-01
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