SCHW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SCHW - The Charles Schwab Corporation
$93.12
0.76 (0.82%)
▲
5d:
-2.29%
30d:
-2.18%
90d:
-8.61%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
16d
Smart Money Distribution
SCHW is up 3.9% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $90 2026-05-15 with 13,588 OI. Put ratio: 71% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SCHW appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.5% annual earnings decline despite 41% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SCHW appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.5% annual earnings decline despite 41% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$169.19
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$105.05
11.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SCHW is currently trading at $93.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $92.98 to $95.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.6) compared to its historical average (15.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 41.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCHW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $92.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.32 (+30.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCHW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $92.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.32 (+30.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$92.98 -
$95.61
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.3% below Wall St target ($120.32)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$92.98 -
$95.61
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.27
Resistance Level
$96.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.60
Wall Street Target
$120.32
(+30.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.1%
Profit Margin
37.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 15.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$88.20
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$84.23
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$80.44
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$92.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.8%)
$236.13
(+156%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 15.8%)
$143.40
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 15.8%)
$121.89
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.65
Bull Case
$152.03
(+60%)
Analyst growth 46.0%, PE expands to 22.4
Base Case
$138.21
(+45%)
Market implied 46.0%, PE stable at 20.4
Bear Case
$64.37
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 15.6
Stabilization Target:
$105.91
(+14.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SCHW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Dennis Howard
SELL
10108 shares
2026-03-03
Paul V Woolway
SELL
6126 shares
2026-03-03
Nigel J Murtagh
SELL
7203 shares
2026-03-03
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Advanced SCHW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SCHW price and gamma walls.
