SCHW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SCHW - The Charles Schwab Corporation
$103.92
0.45 (0.43%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SCHW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SCHW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$192.22
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$119.35
12.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SCHW is currently trading at $103.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $100.96 to $103.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 41.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCHW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $105.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.94 (+16.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCHW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $105.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.94 (+16.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$100.96 -
$103.36
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($120.94)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$100.96 -
$103.36
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$99.69
Resistance Level
$105.81
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.10
Wall Street Target
$120.94
(+16.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.8%
Profit Margin
37.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 17.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$99.23
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$95.16
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$91.26
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$103.35
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 17.0%)
$244.73
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 17.0%)
$165.70
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 17.0%)
$140.85
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.65
Bull Case
$167.73
(+61%)
Analyst growth 47.4%, PE expands to 24.5
Base Case
$152.48
(+47%)
Market implied 47.4%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$70.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.1 to 17.1
Stabilization Target:
$117.18
(+13.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 5:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SCHW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Paul V Woolway
SELL
3205 shares
2025-10-01
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-17
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