LPLA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPLA - LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
$298.21
-2.97 (-0.99%)
▼
5d:
-3.69%
30d:
-10.02%
90d:
-9.63%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPLA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPLA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$664.99
Based on 13.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$412.91
27.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPLA is currently trading at $298.21, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $304.98 to $329.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.5) compared to its historical average (12.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $284.26, while resistance sits at $339.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $417.21 (+39.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $284.26, while resistance sits at $339.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $417.21 (+39.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$304.98 -
$329.90
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.9% below Wall St target ($417.21)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$304.98 -
$329.90
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$284.26
Resistance Level
$339.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.50
Wall Street Target
$417.21
(+39.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 12.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$280.02
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$262.94
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$246.90
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$298.66
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 22.4%)
$1149.09
(+285%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 22.4%)
$547.38
(+84%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 22.4%)
$465.27
(+56%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.11
Bull Case
$662.60
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.8
Base Case
$602.36
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.1
Bear Case
$204.80
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 12.7
Stabilization Target:
$360.73
(+21.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew J Audette
SELL
1110 shares
2026-04-15
Matthew J Audette
SELL
469 shares
2026-04-14
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-27
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