SEM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SEM - SELECT MEDICAL HOLDINGS CORP
$16.50
0.04 (0.24%)
▲
5d:
+0.55%
30d:
+0.67%
90d:
+0.73%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SEM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SEM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.44
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SEM is currently trading at $16.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.38 to $16.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (11.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SEM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SEM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.38 -
$16.46
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.62)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.9% growth with 5.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.38 -
$16.46
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.41
Resistance Level
$16.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.03
Wall Street Target
$16.63
(+0.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.4%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 11.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.65
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$16.80
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$16.95
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.49
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 11.8%)
$42.27
(+156%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 11.8%)
$23.04
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 11.8%)
$19.58
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.07
Bull Case
$23.21
(+41%)
Analyst growth 28.2%, PE expands to 16.9
Base Case
$21.10
(+28%)
Market implied 28.2%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$11.19
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 8:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SEM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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