SF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SF - Stifel Financial Corp.
$71.88
0.94 (1.33%)
▲
5d:
-0.42%
30d:
-2.94%
90d:
-44.13%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$132.26
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$82.12
12.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SF is currently trading at $71.88, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.58 to $104.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.6) compared to its historical average (11.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $69.31, while resistance sits at $74.06.
Market Sentiment: SF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $94.04 (+32.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $69.31, while resistance sits at $74.06.
Market Sentiment: SF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $94.04 (+32.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$64.58 -
$104.74
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.6% below Wall St target ($94.04)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$64.58 -
$104.74
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.31
Resistance Level
$74.07
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.60
Wall Street Target
$94.04
(+32.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 11.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.25
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$61.88
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$57.79
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→12)
$71.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.5%)
$242.12
(+241%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 13.5%)
$103.80
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 13.5%)
$88.23
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.91
Bull Case
$146.73
(+103%)
Analyst growth 88.5%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$133.39
(+85%)
Market implied 88.5%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$48.12
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 11.8
Stabilization Target:
$87.16
(+22.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Rubulotta
SELL
600 shares
2026-02-02
James M Zemlyak
SELL
13 shares
2026-01-29
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2025-11-24
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