SFM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFM - Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.
$70.91
0.25 (0.35%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SFM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SFM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$111.88
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.47
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFM is currently trading at $70.91, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.50 to $80.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.2) compared to its historical average (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $69.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SFM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.86 (+64.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $69.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SFM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.86 (+64.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$72.50 -
$80.71
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SFM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 64.0% below Wall St target ($115.86)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$72.50 -
$80.71
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.29
Resistance Level
$81.67
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.25
Wall Street Target
$115.86
(+64.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.1%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 14.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.62
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$64.71
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$61.93
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$70.80
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.5%)
$169.08
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 9.5%)
$92.86
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 9.5%)
$78.93
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.16
Bull Case
$86.30
(+22%)
Analyst growth 11.8%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$78.45
(+11%)
Market implied 11.8%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$47.71
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.2 to 14.0
Stabilization Target:
$80.78
(+14.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 5:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Dustin Hamilton
SELL
868 shares
2025-10-14
Jack Sinclair
SELL
4045 shares
2025-10-06
Lisa C. McClain
BUY
2025-09-25
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