SFNC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFNC - Simmons First National Corp
$20.51
-0.29 (-1.39%)
▼
5d:
-3.57%
30d:
+0.24%
90d:
-3.98%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SFNC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SFNC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.93
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFNC is currently trading at $20.51, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.57 to $21.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 82.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.57 (+14.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.57 (+14.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$20.57 -
$21.44
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.57)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.57 -
$21.44
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.37
Resistance Level
$21.85
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.35
Wall Street Target
$23.57
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
82.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.30
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$20.10
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$19.90
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$20.43
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 6.1%)
$57.86
(+182%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 6.1%)
$24.51
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 6.1%)
$20.84
(+2%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$21.06
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 3:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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