SFNC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFNC - Simmons First National Corp
$22.84
-0.38 (-1.64%)
▼
5d:
-0.57%
30d:
+6.78%
90d:
+17.37%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SFNC is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SFNC is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.55
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFNC is currently trading at $22.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.38 to $22.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFNC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFNC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.38 -
$22.60
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($23.71)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.38 -
$22.60
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.71
Resistance Level
$22.18
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.36
Wall Street Target
$23.71
(+3.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
82.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.34
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$23.86
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$24.38
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.83
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.4%)
$57.90
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 6.4%)
$27.54
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 6.4%)
$23.41
(+3%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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