SFST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFST - Southern First Bancshares, Inc.
$54.99
-0.78 (-1.40%)
▼
5d:
-2.33%
30d:
-0.24%
90d:
-5.6%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SFST appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 83% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SFST appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 83% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$124.29
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.18
28.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFST is currently trading at $54.99, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.68 to $57.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 83.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFST is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.00 (+20.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFST is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.00 (+20.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$55.68 -
$57.94
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($66.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$55.68 -
$57.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.52
Resistance Level
$57.70
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.36
Wall Street Target
$66.00
(+20.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
83.1%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.30
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$49.73
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$47.30
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$54.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 28.0%)
$304.66
(+454%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 28.0%)
$115.36
(+110%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 28.0%)
$98.06
(+78%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.26
Bull Case
$94.76
(+72%)
Analyst growth 54.5%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$86.14
(+57%)
Market implied 54.5%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$37.92
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$63.83
(+16.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William Iv Maner
BUY
400 shares
2026-03-06
Silvia T King
SELL
2625 shares
2026-02-26
David G Ellison
SELL
1000 shares
2025-12-10
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