What is the fair value of SGML stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for SGML to be between $16.69 and $22.33. The current price is $16.82.

What is the analyst price target for SGML?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for SGML is $18.75. This implies a potential upside of 11.5% from current levels.

SGML Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

SGML - Sigma Lithium Corporation Common Shares

Metal Mining

$16.82

-1.04 (-5.85%) ▼

5d: -22.52%

30d: -18.74%

90d: +25.99%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: May 15, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

SGML is down 22.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $22 2026-07-17 with 1,475 OI. Call ratio: 83% View Scanner →

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SGML is down 22.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 11.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$35.45

Based on 7.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$22.01

23.6% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SGML is currently trading at $16.82, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.69 to $22.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.2) compared to its historical average (30.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SGML is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.8% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.75 (+11.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $16.69 - $22.33

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 72.4%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.8%)
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($18.75)
WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -22.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $16.69 - $22.33

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $16.62

Resistance Level $24.48

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of May 15, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 17.16

Wall Street Target $18.75 (+11.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -64.3%

Profit Margin -45.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -17.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 17.2 vs 30.6 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -17.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $15.14 (-10%)

2-Year Target $13.62 (-19%)

3-Year Target $12.26 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→31) $21.86 (+30%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.1, Growth: 11.4%) $29.87 (+78%)

Base: (SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 11.4%) $23.23 (+38%)

Bear: (PE: 14.6, Growth: 11.4%) $19.75 (+17%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.2 to 30.6

Stabilization Target: $29.99 (+78.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +78.3%

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Last updated: May 15, 2026 10:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:12 PM

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Advanced SGML Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SGML price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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