SHW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHW - The Sherwin-Williams Company
$354.64
0.06 (0.02%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$422.85
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$262.56
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHW is currently trading at $354.64, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $329.18 to $354.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.6) is in line with its historical norms (27.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $362.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $362.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$329.18 -
$354.95
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($386.29)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$329.18 -
$354.95
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$342.00
Resistance Level
$362.32
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.64
Wall Street Target
$386.29
(+8.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
28.6 vs 27.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$361.67
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$368.91
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$376.28
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$354.79
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.6, Growth: 8.9%)
$457.46
(+29%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.9%)
$356.25
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 8.9%)
$302.81
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.24
Bull Case
$460.34
(+30%)
Analyst growth 20.9%, PE expands to 37.2
Base Case
$418.49
(+18%)
Market implied 20.9%, PE stable at 33.8
Bear Case
$235.33
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-29
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-05
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