SHW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHW - The Sherwin-Williams Company
$319.19
3.82 (1.21%)
▲
5d:
+1.67%
30d:
-11.97%
90d:
-1.92%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
SHW is down 5.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $330 2026-06-18 with 1,026 OI. Call ratio: 64% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SHW trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SHW trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$509.38
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$316.28
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHW is currently trading at $319.19, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $316.49 to $357.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.4) compared to its historical average (26.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $327.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $386.76 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $327.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $386.76 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$316.49 -
$357.93
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.6% below Wall St target ($386.76)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$316.49 -
$357.93
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$301.58
Resistance Level
$327.53
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.38
Wall Street Target
$386.76
(+22.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.4%
Profit Margin
10.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.4 vs 26.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$303.39
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$291.86
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$280.77
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→26)
$315.81
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.4, Growth: 13.3%)
$459.26
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.3%)
$439.98
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 13.3%)
$373.98
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.26
Bull Case
$439.14
(+40%)
Analyst growth 31.5%, PE expands to 32.5
Base Case
$399.22
(+27%)
Market implied 31.5%, PE stable at 29.6
Bear Case
$206.40
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.4 to 26.3
Stabilization Target:
$354.73
(+12.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Bryan J Young
SELL
2513 shares
2026-02-24
Colin M Davie
SELL
2976 shares
2026-02-02
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SHW price and gamma walls.
