SHW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHW - The Sherwin-Williams Company
$325.70
5.15 (1.61%)
▲
5d:
+1.16%
30d:
-6.63%
90d:
-0.14%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
SHW is down 5.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $330 2026-06-18 with 1,026 OI. Call ratio: 64% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SHW shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SHW shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$509.38
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$316.28
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHW is currently trading at $325.70, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $312.51 to $349.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.1) is in line with its historical norms (26.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $331.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SHW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $386.76 (+18.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $331.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SHW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $386.76 (+18.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$312.51 -
$349.44
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($386.76)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$312.51 -
$349.44
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$301.58
Resistance Level
$331.10
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.15
Wall Street Target
$386.76
(+18.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.4%
Profit Margin
10.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.2 vs 26.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$317.23
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$308.98
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$300.95
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→26)
$326.53
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.1, Growth: 13.3%)
$474.30
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.3%)
$438.99
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 13.3%)
$373.14
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.26
Bull Case
$439.14
(+40%)
Analyst growth 31.5%, PE expands to 32.5
Base Case
$399.22
(+27%)
Market implied 31.5%, PE stable at 29.6
Bear Case
$206.40
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.1 to 26.2
Stabilization Target:
$353.38
(+8.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Bryan J Young
SELL
2513 shares
2026-02-24
Colin M Davie
SELL
2976 shares
2026-02-02
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