SIGA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIGA - SIGA Technologies Inc.
$4.26
-0.05 (-1.16%)
▼
5d:
-9.94%
30d:
-9.36%
90d:
-36.23%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
SIGA is down 9.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $4.4 2026-06-18 with 71 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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1 traders called SIGA this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SIGA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SIGA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.16
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.93
38.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIGA is currently trading at $4.26, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.43 to $4.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.9) compared to its historical average (3.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1802.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.53 (+311.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.53 (+311.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.43 -
$4.96
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SIGA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 311.5% below Wall St target ($17.53)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.9% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.43 -
$4.96
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.26
Resistance Level
$4.92
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.90
Wall Street Target
$17.53
(+311.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1802.5%
Profit Margin
21.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.9 vs 3.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.87
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$3.51
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$3.19
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→4)
$4.29
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 1533.3%)
$109.35
(+2467%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.9, Growth: 1533.3%)
$14.38
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.5, Growth: 1533.3%)
$12.22
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.28
Bull Case
$9.45
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 16.9
Base Case
$8.59
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.3
Bear Case
$2.92
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.9 to 3.9
Stabilization Target:
$5.73
(+34.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 11:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIGA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SIGA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SIGA price and gamma walls.
