SIGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIGI - Selective Insurance Group
$84.08
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SIGI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SIGI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.08
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.22
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIGI is currently trading at $84.08, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.79 to $84.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $85.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIGI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $85.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$81.79 -
$84.78
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($83.71)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$81.79 -
$84.78
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.45
Resistance Level
$85.20
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.64
Wall Street Target
$83.71
(-0.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.9%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.06
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$80.09
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$78.17
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$84.37
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.0%)
$225.27
(+168%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 5.0%)
$97.34
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 5.0%)
$82.74
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.49
Bull Case
$109.07
(+30%)
Analyst growth 21.9%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$99.16
(+18%)
Market implied 21.9%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$55.33
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$90.75
(+7.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.9%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 1:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SIGI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SIGI price and gamma walls.
