SIRI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIRI - Sirius XM Holdings, Inc
$23.79
0.38 (1.62%)
▲
5d:
+3.66%
30d:
+5.08%
90d:
+18.98%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
SIRI is down 3.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $22 2026-04-17 with 1,558 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SIRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SIRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.05
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.79
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIRI is currently trading at $23.79, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.63 to $22.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (6.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIRI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SIRI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIRI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SIRI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$21.63 -
$22.95
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.23)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.2% growth with 0.2% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.63 -
$22.95
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.94
Resistance Level
$24.10
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.21
Wall Street Target
$24.23
(+3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-70.1%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 6.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.93
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$24.45
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$24.99
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.56
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.3%)
$82.31
(+252%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: 4.3%)
$26.56
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 4.3%)
$22.58
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.23
Bull Case
$35.21
(+57%)
Analyst growth 45.6%, PE expands to 10.9
Base Case
$32.01
(+42%)
Market implied 45.6%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$14.95
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 3:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John W. Hickenlooper
SELL
2026-02-05
August Pfluger
SELL
2026-01-13
Kristina Salen
SELL
1845 shares
2025-11-03
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Advanced SIRI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SIRI price and gamma walls.
