SKWD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SKWD - Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Common Stock
$43.68
-0.05 (-0.11%)
▼
5d:
+2.97%
30d:
-10.09%
90d:
-16.19%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
SKWD is down 8.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $55 2026-04-17 with 106 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SKWD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SKWD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.40
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.44
7.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SKWD is currently trading at $43.68, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.90 to $47.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 203.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SKWD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SKWD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.45 (+40.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SKWD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SKWD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.45 (+40.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$42.90 -
$47.42
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
49th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SKWD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 49th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.7% below Wall St target ($61.45)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$42.90 -
$47.42
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.17
(7.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.60
Resistance Level
$44.64
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.98
Wall Street Target
$61.45
(+40.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
203.4%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 9.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.23
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$38.92
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$36.75
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$43.72
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.1%)
$172.03
(+294%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 12.1%)
$61.46
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 12.1%)
$52.24
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.07
Bull Case
$61.05
(+43%)
Analyst growth 34.5%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$55.50
(+30%)
Market implied 34.5%, PE stable at 10.1
Bear Case
$28.06
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$51.97
(+19.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 9:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SKWD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
8
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Anthony J Kuczinski
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-03
Anthony J Kuczinski
BUY
2000 shares
2026-03-02
Christopher Locke Peirce
BUY
3200 shares
2026-03-02
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Advanced SKWD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SKWD price and gamma walls.
