SON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SON - Sonoco Products Company
$54.03
0.85 (1.60%)
▲
5d:
+2.86%
30d:
-4.17%
90d:
+22.91%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
🚀 STRONG BUY: SON shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 12th percentile) and market pricing in only 0.9% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
🚀 STRONG BUY: SON shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 12th percentile) and market pricing in only 0.9% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.33
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.91
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SON is currently trading at $54.03, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.34 to $55.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.1) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SON is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $54.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (12th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.38 (+21.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SON is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $54.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (12th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.38 (+21.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$52.34 -
$55.67
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
12th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 12th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.1% below Wall St target ($64.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$52.34 -
$55.67
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.56
(4.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.27
Resistance Level
$54.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.12
Wall Street Target
$64.38
(+21.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
141.3%
Profit Margin
13.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.66
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$54.14
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$54.63
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$53.15
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.9%)
$194.54
(+266%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 9.9%)
$70.68
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 9.9%)
$60.08
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.93
Bull Case
$61.56
(+19%)
Analyst growth 10.4%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$55.96
(+8%)
Market implied 10.4%, PE stable at 8.5
Bear Case
$34.46
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ernest D Haynes III
SELL
1581 shares
2026-02-27
James A Harrell III
SELL
20 shares
2026-02-19
Paul Joachimczyk
BUY
20500 shares
2025-10-29
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