STWD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STWD - STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC.
$17.93
-0.25 (-1.38%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: STWD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: STWD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.81
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.41
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STWD is currently trading at $17.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.09 to $18.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STWD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.25 (+18.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STWD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.25 (+18.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$18.09 -
$18.49
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($21.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.09 -
$18.49
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.63
Resistance Level
$18.56
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.80
Wall Street Target
$21.25
(+18.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
67.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.4%
Profit Margin
74.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.84
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$17.75
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$17.66
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$18.02
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.6%)
$52.31
(+192%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 8.6%)
$23.00
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 8.6%)
$19.55
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.03
Bull Case
$35.55
(+98%)
Analyst growth 77.6%, PE expands to 19.4
Base Case
$32.32
(+80%)
Market implied 77.6%, PE stable at 17.7
Bear Case
$12.38
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$18.29
(+2.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.0%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 6:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STWD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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