SUPN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SUPN - Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$48.09
-1.34 (-2.71%)
▼
5d:
-2.59%
30d:
-6.42%
90d:
-6.84%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
SUPN is up 7.7% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $44 2026-06-18 with 12 OI. Put ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SUPN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SUPN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$115.65
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.81
33.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SUPN is currently trading at $48.09, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.77 to $51.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (13.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $46.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SUPN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.83 (+27.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $46.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SUPN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.83 (+27.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$48.77 -
$51.18
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.1% below Wall St target ($62.83)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.77 -
$51.18
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.90
(6.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.87
Resistance Level
$52.96
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.32
Wall Street Target
$62.83
(+27.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
38.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
-3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 13.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.51
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$43.77
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$41.19
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→14)
$49.48
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 63.2%)
$325.26
(+558%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 63.2%)
$166.83
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 63.2%)
$141.80
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.3 to 13.6
Stabilization Target:
$59.39
(+20.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SUPN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Padmanabh P Bhatt
SELL
7250 shares
2026-03-18
Padmanabh P Bhatt
SELL
50000 shares
2026-03-16
Jack A Khattar
SELL
35000 shares
2026-03-13
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Advanced SUPN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SUPN price and gamma walls.
