SUPN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SUPN - Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$48.05
0.64 (1.35%)
▲
5d:
+7.37%
30d:
+9.03%
90d:
-6.59%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SUPN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SUPN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.75
29.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SUPN is currently trading at $48.05, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.99 to $47.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.1) compared to its historical average (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $48.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SUPN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.83 (+30.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $48.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SUPN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.83 (+30.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$43.99 -
$47.32
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.8% below Wall St target ($62.83)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.99 -
$47.32
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.54
Resistance Level
$48.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.06
Wall Street Target
$62.83
(+30.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
38.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
-3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 12.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.65
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$43.37
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$41.20
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$48.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 74.7%)
$319.27
(+564%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: 74.7%)
$162.17
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 74.7%)
$137.84
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.1 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$56.03
(+16.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SUPN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Padmanabh P Bhatt
SELL
7250 shares
2026-03-18
Padmanabh P Bhatt
SELL
50000 shares
2026-03-16
Jack A Khattar
SELL
35000 shares
2026-03-13
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Advanced SUPN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SUPN price and gamma walls.
