SWBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWBI - Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Common Stock
$11.12
0.20 (1.83%)
▲
5d:
-0.63%
30d:
+12.66%
90d:
+13.82%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Mar 05, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SWBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SWBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.27
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.38
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWBI is currently trading at $11.12, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.16 to $11.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 39.7) compared to its historical average (29.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.49, while resistance sits at $11.55.
Market Sentiment: SWBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.50 (+21.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.49, while resistance sits at $11.55.
Market Sentiment: SWBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.50 (+21.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$10.16 -
$11.01
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.4% below Wall St target ($13.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 10.4% growth with -3.9% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.16 -
$11.01
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.73
(6.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.49
Resistance Level
$11.55
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.71
Wall Street Target
$13.50
(+21.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.4% premium
PE vs Historical
39.7 vs 29.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.28
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$13.55
(+22%)
3-Year Target
$14.96
(+35%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 40→30)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.11
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.7, Growth: 12.0%)
$15.62
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.0%)
$8.77
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 12.0%)
$7.46
(-33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (52x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (40x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 52.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.21
Bull Case
$16.02
(+44%)
Analyst growth 33.3%, PE expands to 57.2
Base Case
$14.56
(+31%)
Market implied 33.3%, PE stable at 52.0
Bear Case
$7.43
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 44.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 02, 2026 10:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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