SWK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWK - Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
$78.66
-0.44 (-0.56%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
2d
Smart Money Accumulation
SWK is down 4.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $85 2026-03-20 with 1,208 OI. Call ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SWK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SWK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$141.69
Based on 13.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.98
10.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWK is currently trading at $78.66, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.20 to $83.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.0) is in line with its historical norms (13.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $77.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.51 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $77.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.51 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$76.20 -
$83.06
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($87.51)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.6% growth with 0.1% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$76.20 -
$83.06
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.20
Resistance Level
$85.16
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.99
Wall Street Target
$87.51
(+11.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.4%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 13.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.92
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$81.20
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$82.50
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$78.42
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 23.7%)
$237.16
(+202%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 23.7%)
$148.79
(+89%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 23.7%)
$126.47
(+61%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.90
Bull Case
$169.16
(+115%)
Analyst growth 93.9%, PE expands to 30.1
Base Case
$153.78
(+96%)
Market implied 93.9%, PE stable at 27.4
Bear Case
$53.94
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 10:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-08-26
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-22
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Advanced SWK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SWK price and gamma walls.
