SWK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWK - Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
$69.05
-2.12 (-2.98%)
▼
5d:
-2.49%
30d:
-13.45%
90d:
-7.04%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
Smart Money Accumulation
SWK is down 3.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $75 2026-06-18 with 362 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 2.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SWK trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SWK trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$139.32
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.51
20.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWK is currently trading at $69.05, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.37 to $81.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.2) compared to its historical average (13.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $66.54, while resistance sits at $73.60.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.72 (+27.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $66.54, while resistance sits at $73.60.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.72 (+27.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$68.37 -
$81.94
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.5% below Wall St target ($90.72)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$68.37 -
$81.94
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.54
Resistance Level
$73.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.21
Wall Street Target
$90.73
(+27.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.3%
Profit Margin
2.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 13.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.75
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$64.50
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$61.41
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$71.23
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 18.3%)
$234.93
(+230%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 18.3%)
$117.81
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 18.3%)
$100.14
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.65
Bull Case
$148.02
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.9
Base Case
$134.56
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 25.4
Bear Case
$45.75
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.2 to 13.0
Stabilization Target:
$82.55
(+16.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 3:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-05
Gary C. Peters
BUY
2026-01-12
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-10-27
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SWK price and gamma walls.
