TAK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAK - Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited American Depositary Shares (each representing 1/2 of a share of Common Stock)
$16.61
-0.02 (-0.12%)
▼
5d:
+0.91%
30d:
-6.58%
90d:
-10.02%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TAK appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -1.1% annual earnings decline despite 330% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TAK appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -1.1% annual earnings decline despite 330% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.99
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.97
27.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAK is currently trading at $16.61, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.37 to $17.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.2) compared to its historical average (0.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 330.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TAK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.50 (+23.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TAK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.50 (+23.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$16.37 -
$17.85
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.4% below Wall St target ($20.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.37 -
$17.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.98
Resistance Level
$16.92
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.17
Wall Street Target
$20.50
(+23.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
330.2%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.2 vs 0.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.43
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$16.25
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$16.07
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→0)
$18.38
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 93.0%)
$7074.85
(+42494%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.2, Growth: 93.0%)
$56.06
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.1, Growth: 93.0%)
$47.65
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.38
Bull Case
$36.59
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 48.1
Base Case
$33.26
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.8
Bear Case
$11.31
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.2 to 0.2
Stabilization Target:
$19.00
(+14.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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