TDG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TDG - TransDigm Group Incorporated
$1427.54
5.54 (0.39%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TDG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TDG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1986.91
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1233.72
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TDG is currently trading at $1427.54, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1346.88 to $1436.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 31.0) is in line with its historical norms (32.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TDG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1393.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1622.14 (+13.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TDG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1393.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1622.14 (+13.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$1346.88 -
$1436.43
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1622.14)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$1346.88 -
$1436.43
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$66.16
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1393.35
Resistance Level
$1463.03
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.98
Wall Street Target
$1622.14
(+13.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.0%
Profit Margin
23.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
31.0 vs 32.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1413.26
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$1399.13
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$1385.14
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→32)
$1430.72
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.0, Growth: 19.3%)
$2423.34
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 19.3%)
$1744.33
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 19.3%)
$1482.68
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $32.06
Bull Case
$2232.56
(+56%)
Analyst growth 43.7%, PE expands to 48.5
Base Case
$2029.60
(+42%)
Market implied 43.7%, PE stable at 44.1
Bear Case
$960.25
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 31.0 to 32.0
Stabilization Target:
$1474.51
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 11:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TDG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joel Reiss
SELL
3000 shares
2025-10-20
W Nicholas Howley
SELL
2736 shares
2025-10-15
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
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Advanced TDG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TDG price and gamma walls.
