TFSL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFSL - TFS Financial Corporation
$17.84
-0.02 (-0.11%)
▼
5d:
+1.88%
30d:
+11.15%
90d:
+25.37%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TFSL trades at premium valuation expecting 5.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: TFSL trades at premium valuation expecting 5.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.08
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFSL is currently trading at $17.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.01 to $17.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 48.2) compared to its historical average (41.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TFSL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $15.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TFSL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $15.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.01 -
$17.30
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 13.1% above Wall St target ($15.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.5% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.01 -
$17.30
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.55
Resistance Level
$16.83
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
48.22
Wall Street Target
$15.50
(-13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Profit Margin
27.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
48.2 vs 41.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.82
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$19.86
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$20.95
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 48→41)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.81
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 48.2, Growth: 10.4%)
$24.04
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.4%)
$10.86
(-39%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 10.4%)
$9.23
(-48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (54x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (48x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 54.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.33
Bull Case
$22.03
(+24%)
Analyst growth 12.1%, PE expands to 59.5
Base Case
$20.02
(+12%)
Market implied 12.1%, PE stable at 54.1
Bear Case
$12.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 46.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 11:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anthony J Asher
BUY
5000 shares
2026-03-12
Gavin B Stefanski
SELL
7000 shares
2026-02-20
Marc A Stefanski
SELL
36844 shares
2026-02-17
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