TFSL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFSL - TFS Financial Corporation
$15.31
-0.01 (-0.07%)
▼
5d:
+1.39%
30d:
+5.59%
90d:
+2.55%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TFSL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TFSL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.08
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFSL is currently trading at $15.31, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.61 to $15.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 41.4) is in line with its historical norms (40.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$14.61 -
$15.06
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.61 -
$15.06
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.59
Resistance Level
$15.58
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.38
Wall Street Target
$15.50
(+1.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Profit Margin
27.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
41.4 vs 40.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.48
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$15.65
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$15.82
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41→40)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.33
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.4, Growth: 10.4%)
$20.63
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.4%)
$11.00
(-28%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 10.4%)
$9.35
(-39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (41x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.33
Bull Case
$18.89
(+23%)
Analyst growth 12.1%, PE expands to 51.1
Base Case
$17.18
(+12%)
Market implied 12.1%, PE stable at 46.4
Bear Case
$10.42
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 1:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anthony J Asher
BUY
5000 shares
2026-03-12
Gavin B Stefanski
SELL
7000 shares
2026-02-20
Marc A Stefanski
SELL
36844 shares
2026-02-17
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