THG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
THG - The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.
$173.35
0.76 (0.44%)
▲
5d:
+0.65%
30d:
-4.58%
90d:
-6.28%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: THG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: THG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$234.97
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$145.90
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: THG is currently trading at $173.35, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $170.85 to $177.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $168.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $199.75 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, THG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $168.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $199.75 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$170.85 -
$177.85
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($199.75)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$170.85 -
$177.85
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.66
(3.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$168.41
Resistance Level
$174.45
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.56
Wall Street Target
$199.75
(+15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.9%
Profit Margin
10.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$169.88
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$166.49
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$163.16
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$174.12
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 5.8%)
$480.06
(+177%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 5.8%)
$205.29
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 5.8%)
$174.50
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.12
Bull Case
$185.90
(+9%)
Analyst growth 0.1%, PE expands to 10.3
Base Case
$169.00
(-1%)
Market implied 0.1%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$114.81
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$185.00
(+6.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 9:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is THG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jane D Carlin
SELL
1200 shares
2026-02-27
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
Richard W Lavey
SELL
24420 shares
2026-02-05
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