TKO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKO - TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
$203.76
2.69 (1.34%)
▲
5d:
+5.77%
30d:
-5.77%
90d:
-2.51%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TKO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TKO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$243.93
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$151.46
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKO is currently trading at $203.76, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $193.73 to $214.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 32.1) is in line with its historical norms (33.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 65.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $208.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TKO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $235.44 (+15.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $208.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TKO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $235.44 (+15.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$193.73 -
$214.26
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($235.44)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$193.73 -
$214.26
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$183.77
Resistance Level
$208.57
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.12
Wall Street Target
$235.44
(+15.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
65.0%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
32.1 vs 33.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$200.30
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$196.89
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$193.54
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→34)
$203.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.1, Growth: 14.1%)
$302.96
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 14.1%)
$194.03
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 14.1%)
$164.92
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (53x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 52.63 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.69
Bull Case
$234.59
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 55.3
Base Case
$194.28
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 52.6
Bear Case
$148.62
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 47.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 32.1 to 33.8
Stabilization Target:
$214.43
(+5.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 04, 2026 6:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Shane Kapral
SELL
254 shares
2026-03-09
Nick Khan
SELL
9518 shares
2026-03-03
Shane Kapral
SELL
616 shares
2026-03-03
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