TKR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKR - The Timken Company
$98.92
-3.14 (-3.08%)
▼
5d:
-0.14%
30d:
-6.32%
90d:
+17.58%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TKR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TKR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$151.32
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.96
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKR is currently trading at $98.92, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.58 to $106.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.9) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $94.18, while resistance sits at $103.26. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.45 (+11.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $94.18, while resistance sits at $103.26. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.45 (+11.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$97.58 -
$106.27
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
42th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 42th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($110.45)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$97.58 -
$106.27
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.64
(4.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.18
Resistance Level
$103.26
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.88
Wall Street Target
$110.45
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.9 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$98.43
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$97.93
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$97.44
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$98.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 13.2%)
$198.26
(+100%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.9, Growth: 13.2%)
$143.40
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 13.2%)
$121.89
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.11
Bull Case
$168.56
(+70%)
Analyst growth 60.9%, PE expands to 25.5
Base Case
$153.23
(+55%)
Market implied 60.9%, PE stable at 23.2
Bear Case
$64.77
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.9 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$100.40
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 7:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard G Kyle
SELL
19636 shares
2026-02-20
Richard G Kyle
SELL
10000 shares
2026-02-19
Richard G Kyle
SELL
15837 shares
2025-11-25
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