TKR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKR - The Timken Company
$93.19
-0.96 (-1.02%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TKR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TKR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$130.48
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.02
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKR is currently trading at $93.19, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.24 to $93.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.8) is in line with its historical norms (14.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $95.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (16th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $95.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (16th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$87.24 -
$93.81
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
16th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 16th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($92.03)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.8% growth with 2.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$87.24 -
$93.81
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.88
(4.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.34
Resistance Level
$95.19
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.77
Wall Street Target
$92.03
(-2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.7%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 14.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$96.79
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$99.50
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$102.28
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$94.05
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.2%)
$193.07
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 13.2%)
$136.53
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 13.2%)
$116.05
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.23
Bull Case
$145.01
(+56%)
Analyst growth 41.1%, PE expands to 24.3
Base Case
$131.83
(+42%)
Market implied 41.1%, PE stable at 22.1
Bear Case
$63.51
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-29
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Advanced TKR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TKR price and gamma walls.
