TLK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TLK - PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia
$18.80
0.12 (0.64%)
▲
5d:
-1.62%
30d:
-9.18%
90d:
-10.65%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 17, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TLK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TLK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.34
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.46
3.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TLK is currently trading at $18.80, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.96 to $20.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (13.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TLK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.91, while resistance sits at $19.64.
Market Sentiment: TLK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.10 (+28.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TLK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.91, while resistance sits at $19.64.
Market Sentiment: TLK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.10 (+28.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$17.96 -
$20.49
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.2% below Wall St target ($24.10)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.96 -
$20.49
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.91
Resistance Level
$19.64
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.24
Wall Street Target
$24.10
(+28.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.7%
Profit Margin
14.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 13.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.31
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$17.84
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$17.37
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$18.87
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.0%)
$50.86
(+171%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 14.0%)
$27.86
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 14.0%)
$23.68
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.29
Bull Case
$23.73
(+27%)
Analyst growth 19.0%, PE expands to 15.5
Base Case
$21.57
(+16%)
Market implied 19.0%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$12.32
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.2 to 13.3
Stabilization Target:
$20.42
(+8.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 6:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is TLK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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