TMDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMDX - TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock
$68.86
1.01 (1.49%)
▲
5d:
-11.43%
30d:
+0.6%
90d:
-31.41%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TMDX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TMDX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$155.78
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$96.73
28.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMDX is currently trading at $68.86, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.18 to $75.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.5) compared to its historical average (33.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $64.84, while resistance sits at $80.72.
Market Sentiment: TMDX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.33 (+70.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $64.84, while resistance sits at $80.72.
Market Sentiment: TMDX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.33 (+70.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$68.18 -
$75.46
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TMDX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 70.4% below Wall St target ($117.33)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-11.4%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$68.18 -
$75.46
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.84
Resistance Level
$80.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.52
Wall Street Target
$117.33
(+70.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.5%
Profit Margin
27.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.5 vs 33.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.97
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$55.78
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$50.20
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→34)
$78.61
(+14%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 62.1%)
$235.21
(+242%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.5, Growth: 62.1%)
$232.40
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.3, Growth: 62.1%)
$197.54
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.37
Bull Case
$54.65
(-21%)
Analyst growth -26.8%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$49.68
(-28%)
Market implied -26.8%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$46.14
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.5 to 33.7
Stabilization Target:
$107.83
(+56.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+56.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 10:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Weill
SELL
3571 shares
2026-03-04
Gerardo Hernandez
SELL
7236 shares
2026-03-04
Stephanie Lovell
SELL
1193 shares
2026-03-04
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMDX price and gamma walls.
