TME Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TME - Tencent Music Entertainment Group American Depositary Shares, each representing two Class A Ordinary Shares
$16.78
-0.39 (-2.27%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 17, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TME shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TME shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.67
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.32
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TME is currently trading at $16.78, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.63 to $17.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 2.5) is in line with its historical norms (2.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TME is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.81, while resistance sits at $17.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.84 (+56.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TME is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.81, while resistance sits at $17.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.84 (+56.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$16.63 -
$17.80
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 56.3% below Wall St target ($26.84)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.63 -
$17.80
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.81
Resistance Level
$17.77
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.47
Wall Street Target
$26.84
(+56.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.0%
Profit Margin
34.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
2.5 vs 2.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.26
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$17.34
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$17.43
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.92
(-2%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.4%)
$219.70
(+1180%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.5, Growth: 12.4%)
$24.36
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.1, Growth: 12.4%)
$20.70
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.00
Bull Case
$37.29
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.6
Base Case
$33.90
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.0
Bear Case
$11.53
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TME Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TME price and gamma walls.
