TME Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TME - Tencent Music Entertainment Group American Depositary Shares, each representing two Class A Ordinary Shares
$9.33
-0.10 (-1.08%)
▼
5d:
-6.44%
30d:
-36.11%
90d:
-47.06%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TME shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TME shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.94
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.62
31.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TME is currently trading at $9.33, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.62 to $14.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.3) compared to its historical average (2.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TME is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.44 (+95.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TME is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.44 (+95.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$10.62 -
$14.95
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 95.6% below Wall St target ($18.44)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.4% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.62 -
$14.95
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.25
Resistance Level
$13.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.29
Wall Street Target
$18.44
(+95.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Profit Margin
33.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.3 vs 2.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.49
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.64
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$6.87
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$11.23
(+19%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.7%)
$222.96
(+2264%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.3, Growth: 10.7%)
$12.79
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.1, Growth: 10.7%)
$10.87
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.04
Bull Case
$22.20
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$20.18
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$6.86
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.3 to 2.1
Stabilization Target:
$15.41
(+63.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+63.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 2:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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