BILI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BILI - Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
$17.60
-0.30 (-1.68%)
▼
5d:
+4.39%
30d:
-2.28%
90d:
-23.88%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BILI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -11.5% annual earnings decline despite 436% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BILI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -11.5% annual earnings decline despite 436% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.68
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.85
43.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $17.60, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.74 to $18.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.9) compared to its historical average (2.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 435.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BILI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.44 (+67.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $18.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BILI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.44 (+67.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$16.74 -
$18.09
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 67.3% below Wall St target ($29.44)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.74 -
$18.09
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.79
Resistance Level
$18.04
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.93
Wall Street Target
$29.44
(+67.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
435.8%
Profit Margin
4.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.9 vs 2.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.84
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$14.26
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$12.83
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$18.60
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 29.9%)
$435.11
(+2372%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.9, Growth: 29.9%)
$38.59
(+119%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.6, Growth: 29.9%)
$32.80
(+86%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.49
Bull Case
$39.38
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 40.2
Base Case
$35.80
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 36.5
Bear Case
$12.17
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.9 to 2.8
Stabilization Target:
$25.51
(+45.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+45.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 07, 2026 10:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BILI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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