BILI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BILI - Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
$17.23
-0.35 (-1.99%)
▼
5d:
-9.65%
30d:
-22.28%
90d:
-42.24%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BILI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BILI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.60
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.53
50.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $17.23, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.76 to $24.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.9) compared to its historical average (3.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 435.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.57 (+71.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.57 (+71.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$19.76 -
$24.00
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 71.6% below Wall St target ($29.57)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.76 -
$24.00
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.92
Resistance Level
$22.71
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.87
Wall Street Target
$29.57
(+71.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
435.8%
Profit Margin
4.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.9 vs 3.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.51
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.96
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$12.56
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$20.82
(+21%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 30.8%)
$452.87
(+2528%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.9, Growth: 30.8%)
$38.52
(+124%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.6, Growth: 30.8%)
$32.75
(+90%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.49
Bull Case
$40.26
(+129%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 41.1
Base Case
$36.60
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 37.4
Bear Case
$12.44
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.9 to 3.1
Stabilization Target:
$28.55
(+65.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+65.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 5:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BILI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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