TMUS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMUS - T-Mobile US, Inc.
$197.21
7.93 (4.19%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
11d
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1 traders called TMUS this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMUS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMUS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$315.84
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$196.11
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMUS is currently trading at $197.21, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $187.34 to $200.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.3) is in line with its historical norms (17.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMUS is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $193.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: TMUS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $266.82 (+41.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMUS is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $193.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: TMUS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $266.82 (+41.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$187.34 -
$200.63
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 41.0% below Wall St target ($266.82)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$187.34 -
$200.63
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$181.36
Resistance Level
$193.60
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.31
Wall Street Target
$266.82
(+41.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 17.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$186.63
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$184.02
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$181.44
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$189.11
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 15.9%)
$402.68
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 15.9%)
$294.53
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 15.9%)
$250.35
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.39
Bull Case
$226.66
(+20%)
Analyst growth 11.7%, PE expands to 19.5
Base Case
$206.06
(+9%)
Market implied 11.7%, PE stable at 17.8
Bear Case
$125.45
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.3 to 17.0
Stabilization Target:
$197.28
(+4.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.2%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMUS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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