TMUS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMUS - T-Mobile US, Inc.
$210.82
-0.77 (-0.36%)
▼
5d:
+1.13%
30d:
-1.09%
90d:
+6.05%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
23d
Smart Money Accumulation
TMUS is down 4.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $220 2026-05-15 with 1,973 OI. Call ratio: 67% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMUS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMUS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$437.24
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$271.49
22.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMUS is currently trading at $210.82, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $210.72 to $219.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.6) is in line with its historical norms (16.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMUS is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $202.95, while resistance sits at $218.27.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $268.68 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMUS is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $202.95, while resistance sits at $218.27.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $268.68 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$210.72 -
$219.35
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.4% below Wall St target ($268.68)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$210.72 -
$219.35
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$202.95
Resistance Level
$218.27
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.59
Wall Street Target
$268.68
(+27.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.6%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 16.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$206.60
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$202.47
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$198.42
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$211.32
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 28.4%)
$640.95
(+204%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 28.4%)
$445.99
(+112%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 28.4%)
$379.09
(+80%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.71
Bull Case
$319.43
(+53%)
Analyst growth 39.3%, PE expands to 23.6
Base Case
$290.39
(+39%)
Market implied 39.3%, PE stable at 21.5
Bear Case
$141.76
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 16.6
Stabilization Target:
$224.53
(+6.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 7:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMUS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Srikant M Datar
SELL
3291 shares
2026-03-04
G Michael Sievert
SELL
1089 shares
2026-02-24
Mark Wolfe Nelson
SELL
2329 shares
2026-02-24
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Advanced TMUS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMUS price and gamma walls.
