TPG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPG - TPG Inc. Class A Common Stock
$39.66
0.56 (1.43%)
▲
5d:
-0.75%
30d:
-8.66%
90d:
-39.4%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
TPG is down 6.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $45 2026-04-17 with 163 OI. Call ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TPG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TPG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.17
40.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPG is currently trading at $39.66, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.00 to $44.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.6) compared to its historical average (19.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.62 (+67.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.62 (+67.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$40.00 -
$44.10
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 67.8% below Wall St target ($65.62)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$40.00 -
$44.10
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.62
Resistance Level
$42.17
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.58
Wall Street Target
$65.62
(+67.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
43.0%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 19.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.19
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$31.67
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$28.50
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→19)
$39.89
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 114.9%)
$217.73
(+457%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 114.9%)
$131.96
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 114.9%)
$112.17
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 13.68 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.92
Bull Case
$48.25
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$39.96
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 13.7
Bear Case
$30.57
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 19.0
Stabilization Target:
$54.72
(+39.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TPG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TPG price and gamma walls.
