TPVG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPVG - TRIPLEPOINT VENTURE GROWTH BDC CORP.
$5.96
-0.18 (-2.93%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TPVG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TPVG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.63
Based on -2.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.49
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPVG is currently trading at $5.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.26 to $6.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPVG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPVG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$6.26 -
$6.63
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
53th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TPVG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 53th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6.54)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.3% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6.26 -
$6.63
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.58
(9.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.93
Resistance Level
$6.71
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.33
Wall Street Target
$6.54
(+6.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.3%
Profit Margin
36.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.05
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$5.96
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$5.87
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$6.12
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -8.9%)
$16.34
(+166%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: -8.9%)
$4.64
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: -8.9%)
$3.94
(-36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.83
Bull Case
$7.97
(+34%)
Analyst growth 16.9%, PE expands to 8.2
Base Case
$7.25
(+22%)
Market implied 16.9%, PE stable at 7.5
Bear Case
$4.22
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 6.6
Stabilization Target:
$6.41
(+4.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.3%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPVG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
20
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Sajal Srivastava
BUY
48800 shares
2025-09-03
James Labe
BUY
48800 shares
2025-09-03
James Labe
BUY
54000 shares
2025-09-02
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Advanced TPVG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TPVG price and gamma walls.
