TROW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TROW - T Rowe Price Group Inc
$89.14
0.69 (0.78%)
▲
5d:
+1.32%
30d:
-5.8%
90d:
-14.9%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 01, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
TROW is down 4.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $105 2026-05-15 with 1,626 OI. Call ratio: 67% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TROW shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TROW shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$111.49
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.23
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TROW is currently trading at $89.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.84 to $93.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TROW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.25 (+14.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TROW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.25 (+14.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$87.84 -
$93.83
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($101.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$87.84 -
$93.83
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$85.22
Resistance Level
$90.88
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.68
Wall Street Target
$101.25
(+14.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Profit Margin
28.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.44
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$82.54
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$79.73
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$88.20
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 1.3%)
$236.98
(+168%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 1.3%)
$91.81
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 1.3%)
$78.04
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.24
Bull Case
$104.58
(+19%)
Analyst growth 10.3%, PE expands to 10.3
Base Case
$95.07
(+8%)
Market implied 10.3%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$58.61
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$97.84
(+10.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TROW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Arif Husain
SELL
4260 shares
2025-12-10
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Advanced TROW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TROW price and gamma walls.
