TROW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TROW - T Rowe Price Group Inc
$105.68
0.86 (0.82%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TROW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TROW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$133.08
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$82.63
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TROW is currently trading at $105.68, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $104.03 to $107.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $103.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TROW is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $103.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$104.03 -
$107.10
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($107.83)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$104.03 -
$107.10
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$103.37
Resistance Level
$108.17
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.18
Wall Street Target
$107.83
(+2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Profit Margin
28.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$105.03
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$105.24
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$105.45
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$104.66
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.1%)
$274.25
(+162%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 6.1%)
$125.14
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 6.1%)
$106.37
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.17
Bull Case
$130.05
(+23%)
Analyst growth 12.3%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$118.23
(+12%)
Market implied 12.3%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$71.57
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 11:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TROW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert F Maclellan
SELL
3090 shares
2025-09-22
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