TRTX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRTX - TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. Common Stock
$9.03
-0.28 (-3.01%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 17, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TRTX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TRTX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.52
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.40
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRTX is currently trading at $9.03, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.81 to $9.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.1) is in line with its historical norms (8.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRTX is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $8.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: TRTX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.40 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRTX is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $8.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: TRTX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.40 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$8.81 -
$9.17
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($10.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.81 -
$9.17
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.81
Resistance Level
$9.35
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.14
Wall Street Target
$10.40
(+15.2%)
Profit Margin
48.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 8.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.06
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$9.08
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$9.11
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.07
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.1%)
$35.78
(+296%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 13.1%)
$13.05
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 13.1%)
$11.10
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.65
Bull Case
$17.38
(+92%)
Analyst growth 70.8%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$15.80
(+75%)
Market implied 70.8%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$6.29
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 6:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRTX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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