TSLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSLX - Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc.
$17.50
-0.19 (-1.07%)
▼
5d:
-1.41%
30d:
-3.95%
90d:
-18.15%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TSLX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TSLX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.13
Based on 1.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.12
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSLX is currently trading at $17.50, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.72 to $18.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.0) compared to its historical average (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSLX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.09 (+26.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSLX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.09 (+26.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$17.72 -
$18.40
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.2% below Wall St target ($22.09)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.72 -
$18.40
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.41
(8.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.31
Resistance Level
$18.57
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.98
Wall Street Target
$22.09
(+26.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.7%
Profit Margin
38.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 10.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.75
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$16.03
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$15.34
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$17.42
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -1.5%)
$41.76
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: -1.5%)
$16.74
(-4%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: -1.5%)
$14.23
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.81
Bull Case
$21.02
(+15%)
Analyst growth 7.7%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$19.11
(+5%)
Market implied 7.7%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$12.07
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$19.88
(+13.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 7:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Alan Waxman
BUY
45000 shares
2026-03-10
Alan Waxman
BUY
200000 shares
2026-03-09
Alan Waxman
BUY
200000 shares
2026-03-06
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