TTD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TTD - The Trade Desk, Inc.
$30.33
-0.92 (-2.94%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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8 traders called TTD this week
73% bullish • 3 bearish
73% bullish • 3 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TTD is down 17.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TTD is down 17.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.29
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.30
22.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TTD is currently trading at $30.33, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.86 to $38.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.0) compared to its historical average (18.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TTD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.85 (+78.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TTD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.85 (+78.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$33.86 -
$38.84
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TTD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 78.7% below Wall St target ($55.85)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -17.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$33.86 -
$38.84
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.40
Resistance Level
$36.96
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.99
Wall Street Target
$55.85
(+78.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.1%
Profit Margin
15.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.0 vs 18.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.22
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$27.32
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$25.54
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$31.19
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 17.5%)
$75.45
(+142%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 17.5%)
$50.70
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 17.5%)
$43.10
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.88
Bull Case
$70.11
(+131%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 39.8
Base Case
$63.74
(+110%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 36.2
Bear Case
$21.67
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 18.3
Stabilization Target:
$38.16
(+22.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 7:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TTD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-29
Josh Gottheimer
SELL
2025-09-11
Andrea Lee Cunningham
SELL
1403 shares
2025-09-10
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