TW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TW - Tradeweb Markets Inc. Class A Common Stock
$116.87
0.30 (0.26%)
▲
5d:
-5.87%
30d:
-5.18%
90d:
+8.41%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$165.32
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$102.65
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TW is currently trading at $116.87, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $119.41 to $125.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.0) is in line with its historical norms (27.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 128.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $115.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $132.31 (+13.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $115.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $132.31 (+13.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$119.41 -
$125.56
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($132.31)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.9% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$119.41 -
$125.56
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$115.87
Resistance Level
$126.85
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.98
Wall Street Target
$132.31
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
128.8%
Profit Margin
39.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.0 vs 27.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$114.65
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$112.47
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$110.33
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→28)
$116.78
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.0, Growth: 12.1%)
$164.57
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.1%)
$141.56
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 12.1%)
$120.33
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.78
Bull Case
$163.82
(+32%)
Analyst growth 19.0%, PE expands to 36.4
Base Case
$148.93
(+20%)
Market implied 19.0%, PE stable at 33.1
Bear Case
$85.10
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.0 to 27.5
Stabilization Target:
$123.70
(+5.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 12:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William Hult
SELL
72450 shares
2026-03-03
Amy Clack
SELL
1677 shares
2026-02-10
Douglas Friedman
SELL
30549 shares
2026-02-10
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