TWFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TWFG - TWFG, Inc. Common Stock
$24.99
0.31 (1.26%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 18, 2026
Get Alerted When TWFG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TWFG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TWFG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.65
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.65
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TWFG is currently trading at $24.99, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.62 to $28.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 28.5) compared to its historical average (31.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 46.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TWFG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TWFG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.00 (+32.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TWFG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TWFG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.00 (+32.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$25.62 -
$28.44
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.1% below Wall St target ($33.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$25.62 -
$28.44
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.28
Resistance Level
$26.89
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.49
Wall Street Target
$33.00
(+32.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.2%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.5 vs 31.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.12
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$23.27
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$22.46
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→32)
$24.99
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.5, Growth: 11.3%)
$34.45
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.3%)
$26.96
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 11.3%)
$22.92
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 30.49 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.82
Bull Case
$30.18
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 32.0
Base Case
$24.99
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 30.5
Bear Case
$19.12
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 27.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.5 to 31.7
Stabilization Target:
$27.80
(+11.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.3%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 5:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:20 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TWFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Insurance Brokers Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance Brokers by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WTW
Willis Towers Watson PLC |
STRONG BUY
18 analysts |
$369 | 59 HOLD |
|
AON
Aon PLC |
HOLD
20 analysts |
$395 | 64 BUY |
|
AJG
Arthur J Gallagher & Co |
BUY
17 analysts |
$291 | 53 HOLD |
|
MMC
Marsh & McLennan Compani… |
SELL
20 analysts |
$211 | 61 BUY |
|
BRO
Brown & Brown Inc |
HOLD
12 analysts |
$84 | 58 HOLD |
